Thus the likelihood of NOT getting the sinew after killing two dragons is (0.999)*(0.999)=0.998. This means the the chance of it NOT dropping is 100% - 99.9% (0.999).įrom statistcs we know that if you have two consecutive events you can find the likelihood of both events happening by multiplying the chance for each individual event together. The chance that this thing will drop is about 0.1%, which is to say 1/1000 (0.001). I post here because this thread (and the disparity between farming for 3 minutes vs. Note: This technique will work for any drop. Anyway, I thought I'd help with some of the math behind the likelihood of this dropping to keep people's spirt up. Anyway, long story short it was on the 774th kill that I get my drop (right before an MC run, a good day all around). That and grinding AV rep held no appeal to me. Comment by AllakhazamI went ahead and farmed this because, well, I do love me some purple.
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